The development dynamics of single-family homes

The structure and preference of user groups, in contrast with the corresponding quantities and structures of building stock, are – like the numerator and denominator – the two aspects of settlement-structural efficiency. Especially in the area of housing, user groups on the one hand and housing stocks on the other have shown and may show in future divergent development dynamics. This might in future also increasingly affect single-family housing stocks, which represent about 30 % of the apartments and 65 % of residential buildings in Germany. It can be assumed, that in future the potential for building real estate ownership in Germany will drop, and that therefore the use of single-family housing stocks by traditional user groups will increasingly be called into question. The demographic change is changing the preferences with respect to housing quality while the demanded living space per person is likely to further increase. New user groups for the single-family housing stocks are developing. These developments are taking place with different dynamics in different regions.

The aim of the research project is a quantitative and qualitative comparison of the development dynamics of potential future user groups with the development of the housing stock. The main focus is on the future usability of existing single-family housing stocks (SFH-stocks) with regional differentiations in Germany.

Based on statistical data quantities and regional patterns of development trends and challenges of SFH-Stocks were analyzed. In addition an in depth analysis on the level of municipalities was undertaken. A projection of the development of housing stocks and vacancies was calculated for the period until 2030. Based on a comprehensive literature review hypotheses were generated with respect to development trends of user groups and preferences. As a particular issue the housing situation of elderly households was analyzed. The results provide a fundamental input for answering overarching research questions also in cooperation with the other projects DemRess – having its focus on resource-issues – and Homes-uP, which deals with e.g. economic and social-ecological questions and also adds a more international perspective in co-operation with external partners. The concluding phase of the project aims at bringing together the different project results in particular with respect to synoptical publications on development trends, challenges and options for action in the SFH housing market segment.

Interview mit dem Soziologen Andreas Blum zur Zukunft von Einfamilienhausgebieten in der Sächsische Zeitung v. 02.10.2018: "Eigenheimgebiete werden für Probleme sorgen"

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Blum, Andreas; Martinsen, Milena; Krauß, Norbert: Single family home stocks in transition – implications for urban resource efficiency. In: ZEBAU – Centre for Energy, Construction, Architecture and the Environment GmbH, Hamburg: Sustainable Built Environment Conference 2016 in Hamburg: Strategies, Stakeholders, Success factors, 7th-11th March 2016. Conference proceedings, 2016, S.1050-1058, nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:swb:90-516995

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Lohse, Jacqueline: Projektbericht Entwicklungsdynamik EFH – Analyse der Leerstandsproblematik im EFH-Bestand auf der Gemeindeebene. Dresden : IÖR, 2016

Banse, Juliane; Berndgen-Kaiser, Andrea; Deilmann, Clemens; Fox-Kämper, Runrid; Möbius, Martina: Wohnsituation und Wohnwünsche älterer Menschen in ost- und westdeutschen Städten In: Kurzberichte aus der Bauforschung 56 (2015) 2, S.12-15

Effenberger, Karl-Heinz; Banse, Juliane: Auswirkungen des demographischen Wandels. In: Bundesbaublatt 63 (2014) 12, S.54-56

Effenberger, Karl-Heinz; Banse, Juliane; Oertel, Holger: Deutschland 2060 - die Auswirkungen des demographischen Wandels auf den Wohnungsbestand. Reihe Wissenschaft, 39; Stuttgart: Fraunhofer IRB Verlag, 2014

Banse, Juliane; Berndgen-Kaiser, Andrea; Deilmann, Clemens; Fox-Kämper, Runrid; Möbius, Martina: Wohnsituation und Wohnwünsche älterer Menschen in ost- und westdeutschen Städten. Fraunhofer IRB Verlag, Stuttgart, 2014