Research Area:
Resource Efficiency of Settlement Structures


Effects of demographic change for the use of natural resources – scenarios and approaches to action

The project examines resource related implications of demographic change and changing user preferences for the action field of housing and construction. A particular focus is put on older single family home neighborhoods. Use of resources is analyzed in terms of land use, material flows and energy consumption.

The project is structured into two major work-packages. With the first work-package we calculated a model based large scale (nation-wide, federal states) estimate of resource effects of demographic changes and possible shifts between different sectors of the housing market (e. g. between detached houses and multiple dwellings). General leverage points and options for action were identified.

With the second work-package we analyzed development scenarios, resource-effects and approaches to action for specific case study communities in close co-operation with local practitioners. Two case study communities were selected, one with a decreasing and a second one with a stable population. In addition, in order to capture broader experience beyond the two intensive case studies, further interviews were conducted with experts from 12 additional cities facing different development contexts and challenges.

A comprehensive report of the project results is under preparation as a volume of the UBA TEXTE publication series (In German language with an English summary). Intermediate results can be found here:

Blum, Andreas; Gutting, Robin 
Ressourceneffekte des Bauens und Wohnens im demografischen Wandel 
In: Leerstand- und Flächenmanagement im Ländlichen Raum. 30. Heiligenstadter und Ansbacher Gespräche 2017/2018. Bayreuth: Institut für Entwicklungsforschung im Ländlichen Raum Ober- und Mittelfrankens, 2018, S. 9-14; download

Interview with sociologist Andreas Blum on the future of single-family house areas in the Sächsische Zeitung of 02.10.2018: "Eigenheimgebiete werden für Probleme sorgen"

Blum, Andreas; Gutting, Robin (2018) Wohnungsneubau im demographischen Wandel – Außerhalb der Wachstumsräume drohen deutliche Überkapazitäten. In: PlanerIn 4/18 S. 55-57

Blum, Andreas; Martinsen, Milena; Krauß, Norbert: Single family home stocks in transition – implications for urban resource efficiency. In: ZEBAU – Centre for Energy, Construction, Architecture and the Environment GmbH, Hamburg: Sustainable Built Environment Conference 2016 in Hamburg: Strategies, Stakeholders, Success factors, 7th-11th March 2016. Conference proceedings, 2016, S.1050-1058;

Blum, Andreas; Krauß, Norbert; Martinsen, Milena: Zukunft Einfamilienhaus – explorative Befunde aus der Perspektive der Ressourcen- und Flächeninanspruchnahme. In: Meinel, Gotthard; Schumacher, Ulrich; Schwarz, Steffen; Richter, Benjamin (Hrsg.): Flächennutzungsmonitoring IX: Nachhaltigkeit der Siedlungs- und Verkehrsentwicklung?. Berlin: Rhombos-Verlag, 2017, (IÖR-Schriften; 73), S. 271-280


10/2014 – 01/2018


Dipl.-Soz. Andreas Blum
Phone +49 351 46 79 245


FKZ 3714 93 109 0