Research area:
Monitoring the development of settlement and open space

Demographic Report, Hohen Neuendorf 2030

with Recommendations for Urban Development

Source: © GeoBasis-DE / BKG 2010, own Research
grafik

Many cities and regions are currently dealing with the concrete effects of a changing population structure. Often, they look to their immediate surroundings, and they seek opportunities for positive marketing of their cities. Although many cities and municipalities are likely to shrink in the future, there will still be municipalities which will show population growth. One of these beacons of growth in eastern Germany is the suburban circumference of Berlin, especially the medium-size city of Hohen Neuendorf, which borders the capital to the northwest. Unlike the often-discussed issues of restructuring and destructuring of cities, here, a growth-oriented population dynamic is confronting the municipal administration with specific challenges which go against the overall trend.

Hohen Neuendorf, District Borgsdorf (Venedig) Source: Archive of pictures of the City Hohen Neuendorf
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The Hohen Neuendorf model follows seven guidelines which show the way to the ideal of a “Green city on the Havel”, and to other concepts for a lively, communicative and learning city. The green character of the city is to be largely retained in the future. In-migration has sparked an expansive wave of housing construction, causing additional land to be zoned as residential. However, the intention is that this trend should not reduce the attractiveness of the landscape. At the same time, the increased population affects other areas of urban life, such as social infrastructural facilities (schools, day care centers, etc.), and the creation of additional municipal identification factors. The latter are of increasing significance for the maintenance of the attractiveness of the city for young people, and as a residential site friendly to children and senior citizens.

Hohen Neuendorf, District Borgsdorf, Source: Archive of the City Hohen Neuendorf
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Hohen Neuendorf increased its population by 40% between 1998 and 2011, which caused the stock of housing to almost double. This high dynamic of new construction activity at the same time reflects the difficulties of maintaining a good balance between the provision of new land for housing on the one hand and an attractive, land-thrifty urban development policy on the other. In spite of annual in-migration to Hohen Neuendorf, the aging process of the city will hardly be stoppable. All that will be possible will be a reduction of the rapid rise in the average age of the city’s population, if more young families choose Hohen Neuendorf as their place of residence. The city of Hohen Neuendorf has therefore contracted with the Leibniz Institute for Ecological Spatial Development to prepare a "Demographic Report, Hohen Neuendorf 2030", to analyze specific demographic processes and framework conditions scientifically, and derive recommendations for action by the municipal administration.

Aerial Photograph City Hohen Neuendorf, Source: Archive of pictures of City Hohen Neuendorf
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In the planned report, an interdisciplinary guide is to be established to support the municipal administration of Hohen Neuendorf to further strengthen the existing favorable demographic structures of the city and, in cooperation with the citizens, formulated active development processes in a manner that strengthens citizen participation. For this purpose, the drafting of two different scenarios is planned. In the scenario Hohen Neuendorf under status-quo conditions, it is assumed that few initiatives will be launched by the municipality for dealing with demographic change. The purpose is primarily to present an evaluation of the changing age and professional structures, as well as other population and budget dynamics and demand structures, assuming continued steady in-migration. This scenario therefore primarily pursues the goal of identifying future problems of Hohen Neuendorf at an early date. For future construction-land planning, for example, it is absolutely indispensable to ascertain potential quantitative and qualitative housing demand developments. Under the second scenario, with the title Attractive Hohen Neuendorf 2030, the city would react to the effects of demographic change. Here too, what is at issue is a balanced consideration of the social infrastructural facilities being planned and the maintenance of public services.

One basis for the scenario development for Hohen Neuendorf will be the method developed by the Leibniz Institute for Ecological Spatial Development for formulating municipal housing and residential land forecasts. This method permits deeply structured regional prediction estimates on municipal population and budget structural developments, and expected municipal housing demand patterns. It also permits the derivation of future requirements for a demand-appropriate new-housing construction policy, for the zoning of residential land, and for other areas of action. At the same time, the residential and supply interests of the citizens must be taken into account as a key factor in urban development, but at the same time, the resource land must be managed in a thrifty manner.

www.ioer.de

Term

04/2013-05/2014

Contact

Dr.-Ing. Gotthard Meinel
Phone +49 351 4679 254
G.Meinel[im]ioer.de


Funding

City of Hohen Neuendorf