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DEKASYS

Decarbonisation of the German residential building stock - Qualitative and quantitative system modelling of the societal motivation processes to increase the energetic renovation dynamics and the effectiveness of policy instruments

Photos of a house, unrefurbished and refurbished
Photos: C. Schünemann

Problem statement

While an energetic renovation (ER) rate of at least 2 % per year of the existing building stock is necessary to achieve the German climate protection targets, the current rate is around 1 % and stagnates despite existing political support instruments (1). Although the question of how to increase the ER has been addressed in numerous studies, there is a lack of deeper systemic understanding of the motivation process for energetic renovation. In the previous project SYSDYM, a System Dynamics (SD) simulation model was created that depicts the societal motivational process on the energetic renovation rate of German residential buildings in a highly aggregated way (1). The non-linear dynamics and integration of policy instruments resulted in tipping points, which significantly increased the motivation by enhanced social acceptance and thus willingness for energetic renovation. This SD model is to be expanded and quantified by involving stakeholders and conducting surveys of different types of homeowners.

Project Content

The overarching aim of the project is to create a comprehensive and valid qualitative system model (method: Causal Loop Diagram from the Systems Thinking Toolbox) to describe the motivation and decision-making process for or against an ER. The involvement of experts and stakeholders from politics, science and practice is just as central to this as the involvement of various relevant homeowner groups. The system model provides a deeper, holistic understanding of the complex, dynamic decision-making processes for or against ER. In this context, various system models have been developed for different groups of owners (single-family homes, private housing companies, homeowners' associations) in order to examine whether the interdependencies in the system models differ for the various stakeholders. It is very important that the models have to be not too complex, but detailed enough to provide a realistic, robust but still comprehensible representation of reality. Building on these models, the project examined the effectiveness of existing and alternative policy instruments on the dynamics of energy-efficient refurbishment. Stakeholders from politics, science and practice were involved in the modelling process, which increases both the quality of the models and their acceptance for any implementation of the findings. The system models creation process is illustrated in the following figure:

modelling process
Fig.: Modelling process

Research Questions

What effect do the existing policy instruments have on the motivation process of energetic renovation and why do they not lead to a significantly higher renovation rate?

What obstacles and opportunities do different groups of actors see for the implementation of energetic renovation?

Is it possible to derive more effective policy instruments, possibly tailored to different actors, from the system models through a deeper understanding of the motivation process?

What are the unintended side-effects of existing and alternative policy instruments?

To what extent does the method of two-stage involvement of stakeholders (model quality) and actors (model quantity) increase the validity and acceptance of system models and can it be transferred to other research areas?

Results

The findings of the models are summarized in policy briefs for relevant decision-makers. The network of experts involved in the development of the model will be the main means of dissemination. The model and its development process will also be published as a publication in an English-language scientific journal.

Literature

(1) Schünemann, C.; Sidorova, A.; Gkini, C.; Kopainsky, B.: Using system dynamics modelling to analyse the interplay of policies and societal motivation for promoting energetic renovation. In: Proceedings of the 2021 System Dynamics Conference, Virtually Chicago, USA, July 26-30 2021. System Dynamic Society, 1-30, 2021. proceedings.systemdynamics.org/2021/papers/P1157.pdf

Term

03/2022-06/2024

Funding

Basic funding

Partners

Birgit Kopainsky (System Dynamics Group, University of Bergen, Norway);

Nici Zimmermann (Bartlett School Env, Energy & Resources, UK);

Sandra Volken (University of Bern, Institute of Geography, Switzerland);

[Translate to English:] Leibniz Gemeinschaft
[Translate to English:] Dresden concept
TOTAL E-QUALITY

The Leibniz Institute of Ecological Urban and Regional Development is jointly funded by the federal government and the federal states.

FS Sachsen

This measure is co-financed by tax funds on the basis of the budget approved by the Saxon State Parliament.